Despite US-imposed tariffs, the Nifty index held its ground, staging a resilient rebound from its support levels. However, while a recovery was observed, intraday volatility remained subdued, keeping traders cautious. Buyers managed to retain dominance throughout the session, with every minor dip being quickly absorbed. Yet, the index continued to oscillate within a well-defined range, creating a stiff resistance ceiling and a strong base, reflecting a lack of decisive direction in the market. Currently, Nifty has established robust support at the Fibonacci 0.382% retracement level of 23,141, signalling it as a strong demand zone at lower levels. The price action suggests a deadlock between bulls and bears, with repeated failures to break key support or resistance levels. Additionally, the index continues to trade below its 200-day EMA, a crucial technical barrier in the near term. With no firm breakout on either side, Nifty remains in a sideways trajectory, stuck in consolidation for the seventh consecutive session.
On the technical front, RSI remains below 60, indicating a lack of bullish momentum. This setup points toward a continued consolidation phase, where key support and resistance levels dictate the price action. On the downside, support has shifted to the 23,100–23,000 zone, aligning with the 20 & 50-day EMAs, reinforcing this area as a critical demand zone.
The Nifty ended the session at 23,250.10, slipping 0.35% (82.25 points), reflecting a cautiously optimistic sentiment amid upcoming macroeconomic events. With volatility likely to spike around the RBI’s monetary policy announcement, traders are closely watching for a directional breakout. Until then, the index is expected to remain range-bound, navigating a choppy and consolidative phase.
Options Market Insights
Derivative data signals a mildly bullish undertone, with put writers outpacing call writers, hinting at growing bullish sentiment. The 23,500 strike witnessed heavy call writing (47.34 lakh contracts), solidifying it as a formidable resistance zone. Conversely, substantial put writing at 23,000 (65.14 lakh contracts) highlights strong buyer interest at lower levels. The 23,000–23,100 range has evolved into a demand zone, supported by aggressive put writing, while the 23,300–23,500 range remains a supply zone, as steady call additions continue to act as an overhead barrier. The Put-Call Ratio (PCR) climbed from 0.87 to 1.07, suggesting a shift toward optimistic positioning. With Max Pain at 23,250, bulls have been absorbing bearish attempts, hinting at potential upward pressure in the near term.
Volatility Trends
India VIX, the market’s fear gauge, eased 0.89% to 13.60, indicating diminished uncertainty. As long as VIX remains below 15, market conditions are likely to stay relatively stable, keeping volatility in check.
Market Outlook
Despite ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties, Nifty absorbed selling pressure well, forming a solid base at support levels and staging a gradual recovery despite muted intraday momentum. With both call and put writers strategically placing positions at key levels, market indecision remains dominant. The failure to break below support has boosted optimism, leading to renewed long positions. However, the index’s position below the 200-day EMA continues to present a major technical hurdle. RSI staying under 60, along with Nifty’s adherence to its 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level, reinforces a defined trading range, where both bulls and bears are actively defending their zones. The 23,500–23,350 region has become a strong supply zone, with persistent call writing flipping previous support into resistance. On the downside, 23,200–23,000 remains a crucial support area, backed by significant put additions and psychological importance. A decisive breakout above 23,300 could trigger bullish momentum, but with call writers maintaining a firm stance and steady put writing at lower levels, consolidation is likely to continue. As long as Nifty trades within 23,500–23,000, a buy-on-dips and sell-on-rise strategy remains favourable. However, a break above 23,300 could ignite short-covering, leading to further upside potential.