The MLB regular season has taken four days off and though we saw an incredible All-Star celebration, it’s time to get back to work. Most teams have played nearly 100 games, so calling it the “second half” seems a bit inaccurate, but that’s just how we do things. It’s time for the “second half.”
Let’s start things off right with a few victories.
Odds today are via DraftKings.
Jesús Luzardo over 6.5 K (-130)
Luzardo, a southpaw, has struck out 122 batters in 104 ⅓ innings so far this season with the Phillies. He has gotten to seven strikeouts nine times, including three of his last four outings. The Phillies host the Angels on Friday, and that means Luzardo gets to face the team with the highest strikeout rate in baseball against left-handers at 28.2%. The Angels haven’t seen him this season, either, so I love relative unfamiliarity.
Byron Buxton over 2.5 total bases (+100)
Buxton finished the first half on a flurry, going 12 for 22 with three doubles, a triple and two homers in his last six games, good for an insane slash line of .545/.583/1.045. In the All-Star Game, he had a ninth-inning, RBI double to get the AL within a run before scoring the game-tying run to force the swing-off.
Buxton now enters the second half in Colorado’s Coors Field. He faces lefty Kyle Freeland. Buxton has hit .321/.391/.696 against left-handed pitching this season. Rockies starter Kyle Freeland has a 6.69 ERA at home and allows right-handed swingers to hit .327/.364/.476 against him.
If you’re wondering if these two have ever squared off before, yes, Buxton hit a home run off Freeland — along with a sac bunt — in 2017.
That latter one doesn’t matter much given how long ago it was, but it doesn’t hurt to see. An awful lot of things line up for a big Buxton game, so I’ll take the two-plus total bases. Hopefully, he just homers in his first at-bat to cash our tickets.
The lefty-swinging O’Hearn is fresh off his first All-Star Game and gets to play in Tampa with the short right-field porch and hits in excellent (hot/humid) hitter’s weather. On the mound for the Rays is Taj Bradley, who has been torched at home all season, sporting a 5.55 ERA. He’s given up eight homers in nine home starts. Also, the Orioles already carved him up on June 18 and June 29. O’Hearn is 5 for 12 with two doubles and a home run against Bradley in his career.
Again, a lot of stuff lines up here.
Futures play: Nick Kurtz to win AL Rookie of the Year (+350)
It feels like a good time to jump on Kurtz. He’s been on a major power surge, as noted in power rankings.
Kurtz entered the break with 17 homers and 44 RBI with a .558 slugging percentage and 143 OPS+. He didn’t hit a home run until May 13. He didn’t hit his second until May 20. Starting with May 20, Kurtz has hit .287/.376/.713(!) with seven doubles, 16 homers and 38 RBI in his last 35 games. Talk about figuring out the big leagues, huh?
Teammate and All-Star starter Jacob Wilson is right now hitting .329/.373/.459 (131 OPS+) with 2.2 WAR. Much of his game is buoyed by his batting average, but it was once as high as .372 (June 8). He’s hit .192 in his last 20 games.
Things are really trending toward Kurtz here.