Coalition nuclear costs based on electricity system producing 45% less electricity than Labor’s
Graham Readfearn
The Coalition has just wrapped a press conference spruiking its nuclear plan, and has told reporters that the plan delivers an electricity system that costs 44% less than the government’s – or $263bn less.
But the detail in the Frontier Economics report, released this morning and being used by the government, shows that 44% cost reduction comes by comparing two different scenarios.
The Australian Energy Market Operator has three potential future scenarios for the electricity grid and Frontier looked at two of them – the “progressive change” and “step change” scenarios.
Frontier says that the “progressive” scenario is preferred by the Coalition, and adding nuclear to this “is 44% cheaper than the Step Change future as envisaged by the federal Labor government.”
Crucially, Tristan Edis, director of Green Energy markets, tells me the “progressive change” scenario “involves total electricity consumption in 2052 of 311TWh, whereas Step Change is 450TWh or almost 45% greater electricity demand.”
So the Coalition’s plan to deliver nuclear is based on a scenario where the system is producing 45% less electricity than Labor’s preferred plan.
How much of the supposed $263bn saving the Coalition is pointing to is down to simply adopting a scenario that produces much less electricity, is something we will try and get to the bottom of.
Key events
Majority of children in detention are Indigenous boys
Almost 850 young people are locked up in detention nationwide on any given night, with nine in 10 being boys, and the majority Indigenous children.
As AAP reports, a report released by the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare today showed how many young people were in detention between June 2020 to June 2024.
There were 845 youths in custody in the June quarter this year, with 90% of those being teen boys. Six in 10 were Indigenous children, with 39% non-Indigenous.
The rate of First Nations young people aged between 10 and 17 in detention increased. Indigenous children were 27 times as likely as non-Indigenous young people to be in detention.
The report found Indigenous people only make up 5.7% of 10-17 year olds, but just under two thirds in youth detention are First Nations.
Although the number of people in detention has fluctuated, it has risen from 791 in the June quarter of 2020. Of the total number of children in custody, 317 were in Queensland, followed by 240 in New South Wales, and 88 in Victoria.
Queensland had more young people locked up than Victoria, Western Australia, South Australia, Tasmania and the ACT combined.
Bandt labels Coalition nuclear plan ‘a dangerous con job’
Greens leader, Adam Bandt, has labelled the Coalition’s nuclear plan as “a dangerous con job”. In a post to X, he argued it was a “cover up for more coal and it’s a threat to people’s safety.”
Nuclear is not safe. Coal and gas are not safe. Clean energy is the only safe future.
Natasha May
Mark Butler wants private maternity and mental health to be more affordable
The health minister wants to see maternity care covered by a greater number of private health insurance policies instead of only “gold” level policies.
It’s part of a package of reform proposals to support the viability of private hospitals the minister will suggest at a private health CEO forum being convened today. (You can see the full list of attendees here).
The government announced it would hold the forum after it released the results of its Private Hospital Sector Financial Health Check, which had been undertaken following a series of contract disputes between private hospital companies and health insurers.
The health minister Mark Butler says the key options for reform he will present to the group for their advice today include:
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Changes to improve access to “hospital in the home” care, by requiring insurers to cover safe hospital-run models where patients get hospital-quality care from the comfort of their home.
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Changes to make maternity care more accessible and affordable, by including maternity cover as a standard inclusion across a greater number of policies, instead of only “gold” level policies, expanding access to new models of care, and making it easier for insurers to cover this critical service.
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Changes to improve access to mental health care, by increasing the supply of internationally educated psychiatrists.
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Changes to make contract negotiations fairer between hospitals and insurers, by improving the “default benefits” system that guarantees the funding that hospitals receive when they don’t have a contract with an insurer.
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Other reforms to reduce red tape and improve productivity.
Butler said the options he presented to the CEO Forum today would “kickstart the reform process and fast-track the sector to a place of viability and sustainability.”
Importantly, these reforms will make maternity, mental health and ‘hospital in the home’ services more available and affordable for millions of Australians, while underpinning the viability of the private health sector into the future.
The peak body for obstetricians and gynaecologists held a round table last month to highlight that women are being disproportionately disadvantaged by the stoush between insurers and private hospitals because women-specific care services are the first to go when the system comes under pressure:
Natasha May
Number of residential aged care staff drops
The number of staff working in residential aged care services has decreased since 2020, leading to a lower staff to client ratio, but in the same period staff numbers have doubled in in-home care programs, according to a government report.
The 2023 Aged Care Provider Workforce Survey report released today by the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare presents the findings on the size, composition and characteristics of the aged care workforce in residential and in-home care settings.
It has found that from 2020 to 2023, the total estimated number of staff in residential aged care has decreased from 277,671 to 273,000, including a decrease of nursing and personal care staff from 123,400 positions to 111,000 positions.
The staff to client ratio also decreased from one nursing/personal care position per 1.5 clients to one nursing/personal care position per 1.7 clients.
In the same period the total estimated number of staff increased in Home Care Packages Program (HCPP) has more than doubled from 80,340 to 170,000, including an increase of nursing and personal care staff from 24,876 to 43,000.
However, due to the increase in older adults accessing home the program the staff to client ratio decreased from one nursing/personal care position per 5.7 clients to one nursing/personal care position per 6.0 clients.
In the same period there was also an increase in staff in the Commonwealth Home Support Programme from 76,096 to 97,900.
Chris Bowen to respond to Coalition’s nuclear costings
The climate change and energy minister, Chris Bowen, will step up for a press conference in response to the Coalition’s nuclear energy costings announcement at 1pm AEDT.
Read more on the Coalition’s nuclear policy
Here is our full story from Karen Middleton and Graham Readfearn on the Coalition’s nuclear policy costings:
Coalition nuclear costs based on electricity system producing 45% less electricity than Labor’s
Graham Readfearn
The Coalition has just wrapped a press conference spruiking its nuclear plan, and has told reporters that the plan delivers an electricity system that costs 44% less than the government’s – or $263bn less.
But the detail in the Frontier Economics report, released this morning and being used by the government, shows that 44% cost reduction comes by comparing two different scenarios.
The Australian Energy Market Operator has three potential future scenarios for the electricity grid and Frontier looked at two of them – the “progressive change” and “step change” scenarios.
Frontier says that the “progressive” scenario is preferred by the Coalition, and adding nuclear to this “is 44% cheaper than the Step Change future as envisaged by the federal Labor government.”
Crucially, Tristan Edis, director of Green Energy markets, tells me the “progressive change” scenario “involves total electricity consumption in 2052 of 311TWh, whereas Step Change is 450TWh or almost 45% greater electricity demand.”
So the Coalition’s plan to deliver nuclear is based on a scenario where the system is producing 45% less electricity than Labor’s preferred plan.
How much of the supposed $263bn saving the Coalition is pointing to is down to simply adopting a scenario that produces much less electricity, is something we will try and get to the bottom of.
Main takeaways from Coalition’s nuclear costings announcement
The press conference has just wrapped up. Here are the key points the Coalition announced in regard to the costings of its $330bn nuclear energy policy:
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Wind and solar would account for 49% of the energy grid, and nuclear 38%, by 2050. Coal and gas-fired power plants would also stay open for longer.
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The Coalition claimed its plan would be 44%, or $263bn, cheaper in comparison to modelling of future power prices under a different plan, rather than a reduction on current costs.
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On near-term power price reductions, Peter Dutton answered “we’ll have more to say about our energy policy in relation to the near term”.
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Dutton said he believes bipartisan nuclear support is possible post-Albanese leadership.
Ted O’Brien: Labor wants to ‘force the hand of’ Australians on renewables
Ted O’Brien has been taking aim at Labor’s energy policy, seemingly tapping into the concerns of Australians in the bush, and said:
[Labor is] going to be rolling out tens of thousands of kilometres of transmission lines. We have already heard from the minister that he wants 22,000 solar panels installed a day, 30 wind turbines a month, all the way through to 2030, basically carpeting Australia.
Why? Because Labor believes they can force the hand of every Australian to behave the way Labor wants them to behave, to electrify exactly how Labor wants to electrify.
Dutton ‘confident’ states will work with commonwealth on nuclear
Peter Dutton was asked about progress on working with the states to override the current ban on nuclear power? He responded:
Well, we are in opposition so we’re not in a position to negotiate contracts with governments that have been elected.
He later added he was “confident”, and he thinks SA premier Peter Malinauskas would be the first to sign up.
Are subsidies on the table during the construction phase? Ted O’Brien suggests not:
When it comes to the construction of the power plants, that’s fully built into our modelling without any consideration for subsidisation.
Ted O’Brien is asked about modelling
Ted O’Brien argued there was a cost difference of $263bn through to 2050 between the Coalition and Labor’s plans. Is there modelling on this? He responded:
The modelling goes to the cost of the total system between Labor’s approach of renewables only and the Coalition’s approach. So it is a cost modelling all the way through to 2050.
But no projections on power prices?
It is not a pricing analysis, but as Frontier Economics makes it very clear in the report that prices, ultimately, reflect costs over time …
Dutton: ‘we’ll have more to say’ in relation to near-term prices
Asked about power prices in the near term, Peter Dutton says “we’ll have more to say about our energy policy in relation to the near term”.
He didn’t outline a near-term plan, but instead criticised the government, arguing:
The government has ramped up electricity prices after promising to reduce by $275 and people are now playing $1,000 more than what Labor had promised.